Severe Weather Outlook
Issued: 2:06pm Tuesday 11 Mar 2014
Valid from Thursday 13 March 2014 to Sunday 16 March 2014
Valid from Thursday 13 March 2014 to Sunday 16 March 2014
A broad ridge of high pressure should cover much of the country through to Friday, however, a weakening front is expected to move onto the South Island on Thursday, bringing a modest amount of rain to Fiordland and South Westland.
However, by midnight Friday, a deep low of tropical origin is expected to approach the far north, then move south over the North Island during Saturday and Sunday. There is some uncertainty with regards to the track and depth of this low, however, many parts of the North Island and upper South Island may be in line for severe weather over the weekend.
As indicated, there is a moderate risk of heavy rain over much of the North Island for a time during Saturday and Sunday, spreading south to Cook Strait, Marlborough and northern Canterbury on Sunday. In addition, there is a moderate risk of severe gale easterlies spreading south over northern parts of the North Island on Saturday, then affecting Cook Strait, Kapiti Coast, Marlborough Sounds, Manawatu and Taranaki on Sunday.
However, by midnight Friday, a deep low of tropical origin is expected to approach the far north, then move south over the North Island during Saturday and Sunday. There is some uncertainty with regards to the track and depth of this low, however, many parts of the North Island and upper South Island may be in line for severe weather over the weekend.
As indicated, there is a moderate risk of heavy rain over much of the North Island for a time during Saturday and Sunday, spreading south to Cook Strait, Marlborough and northern Canterbury on Sunday. In addition, there is a moderate risk of severe gale easterlies spreading south over northern parts of the North Island on Saturday, then affecting Cook Strait, Kapiti Coast, Marlborough Sounds, Manawatu and Taranaki on Sunday.
- Low confidence:
- a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
- Moderate confidence:
- a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
- High confidence:
- a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen
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